Durban Business Confidence Index 2025: Quarter 2 Findings Guide City’s Economic Outlook

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The University of KwaZulu-Natal’s Macroeconomics Research Unit (MRU) recently released the findings of the Durban Business Confidence Index (BCI) for the second quarter of 2026 at a business breakfast in Durban, sparking discussions on the city’s economic outlook.

Presenting the findings, MRU Chairperson Professor Harold Ngalawa revealed that business confidence in Durban decreased by 6% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Quarter-on-quarter, the index declined by 7% from 56.32 points in the first quarter to 52.40 in the second quarter.

“Although the Durban BCI declined, it remains above the neutral zone and is significantly higher than the national BCI. The national index fell from 45 points in the first quarter of 2025 to 40 points in the current quarter. Therefore, it appears that the ongoing decline in the Durban BCI is likely driven by the national economic situation more than factors specific to Durban,” said Ngalawa.

Launched in Quarter 3, in 2022, the index is compiled quarterly by MRU with funding from eThekwini Municipality and administrative support from the Durban Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI).

The Index measures business leaders’ sentiments in conducting their daily operations, and serves as a leading economic indicator that reflects current business conditions, monitors output growth, and signals turning points in economic activity.

The business breakfast attended by members of the local business community was facilitated by MRU member Ms Talenta Mabasa. Presentations were delivered by MRU’s Founding Member Professor Harold Ngalawa and fellow MRU researcher Dr Ntokozo Nzimande.

The business breakfast, attended by members of the local business community, was facilitated by the MRU Secretary, Ms Talenta Mabasa. Presentations were delivered by MRU’s Founding Member, Professor Harold Ngalawa, and fellow MRU researcher, Dr Ntokozo Nzimande.

Presenting the opening remarks, Professor Stephen Mutula, Founding Dean and Head of the School of Commerce, noted that the Index is timely given recent global developments, including the tariffs imposed by the United States of America on South Africa and the country’s potential exclusion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) initiative.

“It is these global developments that behove us to look at how we can improve our business environment and explore what we can do to create an environment that supports sustainable businesses. The DBCI makes us to be recognised for best practices, setting a precedent that other cities like Cape Town are now following, with the city currently developing its own BCI. Going forward, there is need for more research on the BCI and its implications on the Durban Economy,” said Mutula. 

Mr Shunnon Tulsiram, Head of Economic Development and Investment at eThekwini Municipality, emphasised the importance of the triple helix partnership - government, the business community, and academia working together.

“The Durban Business Confidence Index has been widely quoted in many speeches and we can assure you that we value this tool. We also value the Durban BCI Report, which is professionally written, and our partnership with DCCI and UKZN. Going forward, we hope that we can expand the coverage and get a better understanding of the Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) and tourism community as they are important to the local economy,” he said. 

Mr Yolan Nagoor, Manager of Policy and Advocacy at the Durban Chamber of Commerce and Industry NPC, said: “As organised business, we believe the findings accurately reflect the sentiments of Durban’s business community.

“We firmly believe that through collaboration and robust discussions between the private and public sectors, we will be able to make a difference and address our challenges. There is a need for clear and direct conversations on delivery with the private sector. As organised business, we are also committed to working with government to restore business confidence and address the issues experienced by the business community through our strong advocacy capabilities.”

Ms Hazel Langa, Public Relations Manager in the College of Law and Management Studies, spoke on the importance of stakeholder engagement in supporting UKZN’s high-impact societal priorities.

“As business executives, we understand that projects of this nature require funding. That is why we are grateful to eThekwini Municipality for their financial support over the years as well as the Durban Chamber of Commerce and Industry for their administrative support. Generating third-stream income is an important element of our activities and making meaningful partnerships with business partners is very important for UKZN. As our goal is to be thought-leaders and key contributors to economic growth and development in our region, we look forward to more collaborations moving forward,” said Langa. 

The Durban Business Confidence Index (DBCI) can be accessed here.

Words: Thandiwe Jumo

Photograph: Rajesh Jantilal